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经济学人下载:全球增长放缓 美国成为异类(2)

Source: Economist    2018-11-08  我要投稿   论坛   Favorite  

The second divide exists within the ranks of advanced economies. Rich countries seem to be gently slowing, with one big exception: America.
第二个差异存在于发达经济体之间。发达国家经济似乎都在放缓,但有一个例外:美国。

There, growth has sped up dramatically, exceeding an annualised rate of 4% in the second quarter of 2018.
美国经济增长速度大大加快,超过2018年第二季度4%的年度增长率。

America is the only large advanced economy in which the IMF projects activity will expand more quickly this year than it did last year.
在IMF预计的经济活动中,美国是唯一一个经济扩张比去年更加迅速的大型发达经济体。

This acceleration is because of President Donald Trump's tax cuts.
美国经济增长加速是由于特朗普·唐纳德的减税政策。

In September the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, the lowest since 1969; wage growth is slowly but surely rising. Rampant demand is pushing up interest rates.
9月,其失业率下降至3.7%,是自1969年以来最低水平;工资增长缓慢却坚定。庞大的需求推动了利率的上涨。

The Federal Reserve has raised short-term rates by two percentage points since it started tightening monetary policy in 2015.
自2015年开始推行紧缩的货币政策以来,美联储的短期利率上调了两个百分点。

This week Mr Trump described the Fed's policy as "crazy". The yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has risen by more than in most other rich countries.
本周,特朗普称联邦储备局的政策“很疯狂”。十年长期国库券收益的增长比其他大部分富裕国家都多。

It now stands at over 3.2%, higher than at any time since 2011.
如今该增长率超过3.2%,比自2011年起的任何时候都要高。

These different growth paths could yet separate further, because many of the immediate economic risks threaten countries other than America.
这些不同的增长途径可能会进一步分离,因为很多紧迫的经济风险会对美国之外的国家造成了威胁。

One emanates from Italy, where bond yields are also rising rapidly—and not because of a robust economy.
其中一个风险源自意大利,意大利债券市场利息率也在迅速增长—而且这并不是因为其经济强健。

Instead, an extravagant budget put forward by its populist coalition government has sparked a confrontation with the European Commission
相反,其平民主义联合政府提出的奢侈预算刺激了和欧洲委员会之间的冲突,

and reignited fears about the sustainability of the country's huge public-debt burden.
也再次激起了对国家巨大国债负担持续性的恐惧。

The spread between yields on Italian and German ten year bonds now stands at around three percentage points, its widest in over five years.
意大利和德国十年期债券收益率之间的差价现在达到了约三个百分点,是这五年来的最大差价。

Those rises will chill the Italian economy. Rising yields have not so far spread beyond Italy's borders,
那些增长将让意大利经济遭遇寒冬。收益上涨目前还没有传播出意大利边界,

but further increases could mean that crisis engulfs the euro zone again. Such fears will do no favours to European business confidence, which has already softened this year.
但是进一步的增长可能意味着危机会再一次吞没欧元区。这种恐惧不利于欧洲业界信心的增长,今年商业界信心已经有所减弱。


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