全球矿业巨擘正敦促钢铁制造商接受创纪录的2010-11年度铁矿石合约价格，此举可能导致矿商与中国之间重现去年的对峙局面。
Global mining companies are pushing steelmakers to accept a record price for iron ore for the 2010-11 annual contracts, risking a repetition of last year's stand-off with China.
目前，巴西淡水河谷以及英澳矿商力拓和必和必拓，正与以新日铁为首的日本钢铁企业启动它们所谓的年度“基准”谈判。与中国钢厂（由宝钢牵头）的谈判则尚未开始。
The move comes as miners Vale of Brazil and Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton start their so-called “benchmark” annual talks with steel companies in Japan, led by Nippon Steel. The talks with Chinese mills, led by Baosteel, have yet to start.
英国《金融时报》了解到，如果矿商方面在谈判中占上风，铁矿石价格可能定在每吨90美元，甚至更高。每吨90美元是2008-09年度创下的合约价最高纪录，远高于2009-10年度达成的每吨60美元。
If the miners get their way, prices could be settled at, or even above, $90 a tonne – the record level at which the 2008-09 annual contracts were settled – sharply higher than the $60 agreed for 2009-10, the Financial Times has learnt.
每吨90美元也意味着在去年基础上涨价50%，远高于市场普遍预测的30%-40%涨幅。不过，矿业高管表示，涨价幅度可能还要大得多，就连70%-90%的涨幅也是较为现实的结果，因为现货市场上的铁矿石价格已涨至每吨120美元（不含运费），两倍于当前的年度合约价。
A 50 per cent rise to $90 will be well above the market consensus for a 30-40 per cent rise. However, senior mining executives have suggested that the increase could be far larger, with talk of a 70-90 per cent rise as a realistic outcome, as the cost of iron ore in the spot market – excluding freight – has climbed to $120, double the current annual price.
“我们究竟有什么理由要接受低于现货价的任何价格？”一名矿业高管问道。他辩称，矿商宁可在现货市场销售，也不愿退而求其次，在年度合约中接受低价。另一名高管表示，分析师们预测的30%-40%的涨价幅度“可能错了”。“市场供应很紧张，”他补充说。
“Why on earth should we agree to anything different but spot prices?” asked one senior executive, arguing that the miners would rather sell on the spot than settle for a low price in annual contracts. Another executive said analysts' forecast of a deal at 30-40 per cent “could be wrong”. “The market is very tight,” he added.
这样的要求将令钢铁制造商震惊，就在几周前，它们还在声称，从4月1日开始的铁矿石年度合约价根本不会上涨。上述矿业高管是以匿名为条件透露谈判状况的。他们表示，近期市场上有关矿商正与中方商讨提价40%的传言是没有根据的。“我们尚未与中方人员会面，”其中一人表示。
The demands will be a shock for steelmakers that only a few weeks ago were indicating that prices would not increase at all for the annual contracts which start on April 1. The senior mining executives discussed the status of the negotiations on condition of anonymity. They said recent market chatter about discussions with China for a 40 per cent rise was baseless. “We have not met the Chinese,” one said.
矿商押注的是，铁矿石现货价今年全年将保持高位，其支持因素包括：中国需求强劲、其它地方的高炉重新投产，以及全球第三大铁矿石出口国印度开征新的矿石出口关税。“影响铁矿石现货市场的各项因素在2010年预期将保持坚挺，”力拓首席经济学家威维克·图普勒表示。
The miners are betting that spot prices will remain high throughout the year, supported by strong demand from China, the reactivation of blast furnaces elsewhere, and new ore export taxes in India, the world's third largest exporter. “Conditions affecting spot iron ore markets are expected to remain firm in 2010,” said Vivek Tulpulé, Rio's chief economist.
全球最大铁矿石开采商淡水河谷昨日警告，即便该公司今年在各矿山开足产能，“也将难以满足客户需求”。
Vale, the world's largest ore miner, yesterday warned that even if it ran its mines at full capacity this year, it “will struggle to satisfy client demand”.
将铁矿石价格提高至创纪录水平，将遭到钢铁制造商的强烈反对，矿业高管们知道自己将面对极其艰难的谈判。“今年真的很艰难，甚至比去年还要棘手，”一名高管表示。
The push for a record price would be strongly opposed by steelmakers and mining executives are braced for extremely difficult talks. “This year is seriously hard. Even harder than last year,” one executive said.