所有这一切都意味着有更多的房屋进入市场,进而压低房价。衍生品经纪公司MF Global首席经济学家奥沙利文说,市场上仍有大量过剩房屋。由于供房没有那么难了,我们将会慢慢消化这些过量供应,不过不管怎样,房屋仍旧严重过剩。
All of that means more homes coming on the market, pushing values lower. 'There still is a huge, huge excess of homes,' says Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global. Due to better home affordability 'you're going to eat into that glut over time, but nonetheless there's still a huge excess.'
房屋销售最近出现好转,主要原因是美联储收购抵押贷款证券带来的较低的抵押贷款利率,以及对买房人的联邦减税措施。这两项措施都将于明年年中之前到期。届时,房屋销售活动将会受到冲击。
Much of the recent improvement in sales is due to low mortgage rates, spurred by the Federal Reserve's purchase of mortgage securities, and a federal tax credit for home buyers. Both are set to expire by the middle of next year. When they do, sales activity will take a hit.
楼市的一个领域可能会显示出一些希望。经济低迷时期住宅投资大幅下滑,已经没有进一步下降的空间了。
One area of housing could show some hope. Residential investment fell so sharply during the economic downturn that it has little room to decline further.
11月份新屋销售较2005年7月的峰值低74%,未来很多年都不太可能会再回到那个水平。不过库存已经降到了1971年以来的最低水平,因此房屋建设很可能会上升,推动整体经济增长。
Sales of new homes in November stood 74% below the July 2005 peak and are unlikely to reach that level again for many years. But inventories have been whittled down to the lowest level since 1971, so construction is likely to rise and contribute to overall growth in the economy.
在经过了两年的动荡之后,预测人士的普遍看法是,2010年楼市将出现小幅好转。对房价来说,风险很显然是不断增多的止赎带来的下行压力。不过房屋建设从低迷的水平开始回升,很有希望成为2010年的一大惊喜。
After two years of turmoil, forecasters' consensus view is for minor improvement in housing in 2010. For home prices, the risk is clearly to the downside given mounting foreclosures. But home construction, starting from its depressed levels, has a good shot at being a positive surprise for 2010.