广播听力:CASS: Chinese Economy to Grow by 9% Next Year

One of China's top think-tanks says China's GDP is estimated to reach 8.3 percent growth this year with next year surpassing nine percent, if persistent stimulus policies and a world economic revival continue.

The prediction was made by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, or CASS, in its just-released annual Blue Book on the Economy.

Zheng Chenguang has the details.

Dr. Zhang Tao is a researcher from the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics under CASS. He says the economy will be mainly driven by investment in 2010.

"In 2009, the economy mainly depended on investment for growth. There is no doubt about that. In 2010, I think investment will still fuel the economy but with a slower growth pace. It will grow by 23 percent year-on-year."(www.hXen.com)

According to the Blue Book, China's total fixed investment in 2009 will expand by 32 percent from last year at a pace that is the highest in the past 16 years.

This forecast follows China's Central Economic Work Conference, attended by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.

Top policymakers at that meeting agreed to continue the adoption of proactive fiscal and moderately easy monetary policies next year.

In light of this policy direction Dr. Zhang says investment will amount to 70 percent of the overall GDP next year.

Meanwhile, authors of the Blue Book offer an optimistic outlook for exports, which have been hit hard by the shrinking overseas market.

Pei Changhong is the director of the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics under CASS.

"If the overseas market continues to revive, China's exports will increase by 15 percent in 2010 from this year. The total value of this year's exports and imports will reach 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars. Next year, the index will recover to the level of about 2.5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2008."

Meanwhile, the Blue Book states that this year's consumer price index will stay in the negative territory at minus 0.5 percent compared with last year. But the index will climb to a yearly growth of 2 percent with the stronger economic recovery in 2010.

Zheng Chenguang, CRI news.